The number that matters
The CBAM 2026 default emissions factor for hot-rolled steel sits between 2.0 and 2.8 tCO₂e per tonne of product. At the transitional-period default price of €85 / tCO₂e, this converts to a per-kilogram tariff of €0.17 to €0.24 — before verified data is submitted, before offsets, before any bilateral relief. For a mid-tier Indian mill running on 3–5% operating margin, that tariff exceeds the margin on the export order itself.
"The question is no longer whether Indian steel exports absorb the CBAM. It is which mills will still be exporting when they do."
The mitigating path is measurement. A verified emissions dossier that is 30% below the default gets the tariff below the operating margin. A dossier 50% below turns CBAM from a threat into a competitive moat against unmeasured competitors. The window to prepare that dossier — data, verification, submission — is now single-digit weeks.